Why it will not work.
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Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich surprised the American public recently by announcing a political pact whereby they would try to setup one-on-one match ups with businessman Donald Trump in the remaining primaries. Cruz would campaign in Indiana and Kasich would drop out. Conversely, Kasich would campaign in New Mexico and Oregon, and Cruz would not. This is a desperate attempt to stop Donald Trump from picking up the remaining delegates and winning the GOP nomination on the first ballot. Mathematically, both Sen. Cruz and Gov. Kasich cannot possibly win enough delegates and, instead, are hoping to win the nomination at a contested convention. If this sounds like collusion, it is, and, Yes, this is how sleazy American politics has become.
As predicted, Mr. Trump handily won the Northeast primaries yesterday, scooping up the lion’s share of delegates thereby providing him with momentum moving forward to the next contest in Indiana where Sen. Cruz desperately needs a win.
The concept behind the Cruz-Kasich pact is simple, as one candidate drops out of a contest, his supporters will theoretically vote for the other candidate. In other words, in Indiana, Kasich supporters will vote for Cruz. Sounds simple, right? There are three things wrong here:
First, as of Tuesday, before the precincts in the Northeast closed, Donald Trump was currently leading in Indiana by 17.42 points. To be precise…
37.41% – Trump
19.99% – Cruz
15.38% – Kasich
This means Trump currently has enough votes to defeat Cruz and Kasich combined.
Second, let us not forget that after a major primary victory, the winner normally enjoys a bump in the next contest, while the popularity of his opponents declines. This will most likely happen in Indiana.
Third, assuming Kasich drops out of Indiana, Sen. Cruz should not be so naive as to believe all of Kasich’s supporters will move to his camp. Reports out of Indiana shows Donald Trump as the second most popular candidate among Kasich voters. So Kasich supporters may very well gravitate to Trump.
There is one other element to consider, as recently reported from exit polls in Pennsylvania held up to this past Monday; simply, the voters do not like the Cruz-Kasich pact and believe it stinks of collusion, thereby causing them to cast their votes for Donald Trump. In other words, a backfire is in the offing.
The pact is not concerned with winning on the campaign trail as much as it is about stopping Mr. Trump and forcing a contested convention. If this happens, it will undoubtedly enjoy high drama and ratings, but will put the Republican Party in a bad light. Even worse, it could force Trump’s hand and divide the party, thereby costing the Republicans the election.
No matter how you slice it, the Cruz-Kasich pact is a desperate high-risk gamble. It will likely be construed by the public as a diabolical scheme by establishment politicians, something the voters are tired of hearing about. If the pact fails, and the Trump Train runs through the remaining primaries, the campaigns for both Cruz and Kasich will finally be at an end, unless someone dreams up another nefarious way to derail Mr. Trump, such as changing the convention rules.
All of this because two politicians do not want to admit they have been defeated.
Keep the Faith!