Super Tuesday: Clinton Wins No Matter What Bernie Does

By
James Williams
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Let’s look at Hillary Clinton as she gets ready for a big night on Super Tuesday 3. Let’s say that Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a virtual tie in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois and she wins by a 20 points in Florida and North Carolina.

This all about the math and while Sanders could and likely will keep this battle going for a long time his chances of beating Clinton for the Democratic nomination remains remote.

Clinton would get about 380 delegates to Sanders’s 315 increasing her lead by about 60 delegates. Even if Sanders wins Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, Clinton will still net more delegates if she wins Florida and North Carolina big.

For Clinton a good night begins in the Sunshine State where she will get a big win that will likely be called early in the evening. Unlike the GOP race the Democrats have no winner take all states but Clinton will score many of the 214 delegates (140 district, 74 statewide) up for grabs.

TOPSHOT-US-VOTE-DEMOCRAT-SANDERS

Clinton is also expected to win four of five states, according to the PredictWise model. She has a greater than 85-percent chance of winning delegate-rich Florida and North Carolina, plus a 65-percent chance of winning Ohio. Clinton is also narrowly favored (53 percent) in Illinois, where she grew up, while Sanders has a 56-percent probability of victory in Missouri.

Sanders hopes to repeat the Michigan Miracle by upsetting Clinton in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. However, Clinton is not giving up on winning in the Midwest while she will do well in North Carolina with another likely big delegate haul of 121 available.

Clinton hopes to win in both Ohio and Illinois where she holds leads slight leads in all of the most recent polls. Ohio has 143 delegates while Clinton’s home state of Illinois offers up a hefty 156 delegates and even if she loses she will still pick up a large number of delegates.

71 delegates in the state of Missouri are again in what looks like a tossup heading into tonight’s big Super Tuesday 3. Clinton remains ahead in the polls in the Show Me State and again she will log a good number of delegates.

So no matter how well Sanders does tonight, Clinton remains the big leader in delegates.

 

 

James Williams
Jim Williams is the Washington Bureau Chief, Digital Director as well as the Director of Special Projects for Genesis Communications. He is starting his third year as part of the team. This is Williams 40th year in the media business, and in that time he has served in a number of capacities. He is a seven time Emmy Award winning television producer, director, writer and executive. He has developed four regional sports networks, directed over 2,000 live sporting events including basketball, football, baseball hockey, soccer and even polo to name a few sports. Major events include three Olympic Games, two World Cups, two World Series, six NBA Playoffs, four Stanley Cup Playoffs, four NCAA Men’s National Basketball Championship Tournaments (March Madness), two Super Bowl and over a dozen college bowl games. On the entertainment side Williams was involved s and directed over 500 concerts for Showtime, Pay Per View and MTV Networks.