A brand new Monmouth University Poll finds that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton maintain their substantial leads in national voter preferences for their respective parties’ nominations. When you go inside the numbers on the Republican side Trump remains the clear leader of the pack.
A majority of all Republican voters 54% say that the party should get behind Trump as the nominee if he has the most delegates but not enough for a first round ballot victory. Meanwhile, 34% would like to see the convention nominate someone else in this case.
Among those mentioned as possible nominees by voters who would like to see someone other than Trump nominated are Ted Cruz (33%), John Kasich (23%), Marco Rubio (10%), Ben Carson (5%), Mitt Romney (4%), Jeb Bush (3%), and Paul Ryan (2%).
But it does not look like there will be a contested convention as Trump remains the favorite to show up in Cleveland at 1,237 delegates or more. In the latest poll with plenty of delegate rich states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California among others the polls remain in favor of the GOP front-runner.
The new survey shows of those Republican polled Trump has the support of 41% of GOP partisans and leaners. Cruz gets 29% of the support and Kasich has 18% support. Trump’s support has held fairly steady over the past few months – it was 36% in January and 41% in December.
Cruz’s support has doubled since December, when it stood at 14%. Kasich’s support has increased exponentially from the 3% he held just a few months ago.
In the battle of the sexes Trump has strong backing among men – 50%, compared to 23% for Cruz and 18% for Kasich – while women are divided – 35% for Cruz, 31% for Trump, and 19% for Kasich.
Looking at the numbers on the educational side Republicans without a college degree prefer Trump – 47%, compared to 26% for Cruz and 14% for Kasich – while college graduates are almost evenly split – 33% for Cruz, 31% for Trump, and 28% for Kasich.
Trump wins among moderate voters – 49%, to 25% for Kasich and 18% for Cruz – and among somewhat conservative voters – 39%, to 22% for Cruz and 20% for Kasich. However, Cruz is narrowly preferred by very conservative voters – 44%, to 37% for Trump and 12% for Kasich.
So, the road to the GOP nomination still seems to favor Trump.