What the polls show.
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Following Tuesday’s Nevada Caucuses, which Donald Trump won handily, we now approach next week’s “Super Tuesday” (March 1st). For my younger readers, it is nicknamed as the “SEC Primary” as many states are represented in the South Eastern Conference. What makes this meaningful is that it is the largest single day voting contest which picks hundreds of delegates for the candidates, an important test for them to demonstrate whether they can carry a national election.
Trump has the advantage of momentum from New Hampshire, South Carolina, and now Nevada, which should, in theory, give him a bump in the polls. He also has the advantage of already holding good polling numbers going into next week’s primaries.
This year, Super Tuesday primaries include: Alabama, Alaskan Caucuses, Arkansas, Colorado Caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota Caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Caucuses. In looking over the latest polls, as maintained by Real Clear Politics, here is where the candidates stand as we approach the weekend:
ALABAMA – 50 delegates
+21 – Trump
Note: Alabama has not conducted a reliable poll since August.
Presumed winner: Trump
ALASKA – 28 delegates
28% – Trump
24% – Cruz
09% – Carson
Presumed winner: Trump
ARKANSAS – 40 delegates
27% – Cruz
23% – Trump
23% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Cruz
COLORADO – 37 delegates
+6 – Carson
Note: Colorado has not conducted a reliable poll since November.
Presumed winner: Unknown
GEORGIA – 76 delegates
34.7% – Trump
23.7% – Cruz
14.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
MASSACHUSETTS – 42 delegates
41.0% – Trump
17.0% – Rubio
10.0% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
MINNESOTA – 38 delegates
20.7% – Trump
14.7% – Rubio
13.7% – Carson
Presumed winner: Trump
OKLAHOMA – 43 delegates
32.5% – Trump
25.0% – Cruz
15.5% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
TENNESSEE – 58 delegates
+4 – Trump
Note: Tennessee has not conducted a reliable poll since November.
Presumed winner: Unknown
TEXAS (Sen. Cruz’ home state) – 172 delegates
37.3% – Cruz
28.0% – Trump
11.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Cruz
VERMONT – 16 delegates
32.0% – Trump
17.0% – Rubio
11.0% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
VIRGINIA – 49 delegates
28% – Trump
22% – Rubio
19% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
WYOMING – 29 delegates
Note: Wyoming has not conducted a reliable poll since July.
Presumed winner: Unknown
With just a couple of exceptions, Sen. Rubio and Sen. Cruz, took turns in the #2 and #3 position.
So far, all of the primaries have attracted record voters, thanks in large part to Trump’s popularity. If this continues through Super Tuesday, he may become unstoppable.
The real prize on Super Tuesday is Texas with 172 delegates. This is, of course, Sen. Cruz’ home state, but he may not have a lock on it. With his weak showing in Nevada and the recent gaff regarding the firing of his communications director for fraudulent statements about the other candidates, the Cruz campaign appears to be running out of steam while Sen. Rubio is on the rise. All of this might cost the senator his home state which may very well go to Donald Trump due to his momentum, as well as Arkansas. It is entirely possible Sen. Cruz may come up empty on Super Tuesday while Sen. Rubio hangs on and Mr. Trump corners the market.
In looking over the delegate count, it is possible Mr. Trump may win as many as 342 delegates following Super Tuesday. Sen. Cruz may win up to 212, assuming he wins Arkansas and Texas.
Following Super Tuesday, there are two other important dates:
TUESDAY, MARCH 8TH
MICHIGAN – 59 delegates
33.7% – Trump
13.0% – Kasich
12.7% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
TUESDAY, MARCH 15TH
FLORIDA (Sen. Rubio’s home state) – 99 delegates
40.0% – Trump
19.0% – Cruz
13.7% – Rubio
Presumed winner: Trump
OHIO (Gov. Kasich’s home state) – 66 delegates
31% – Trump
26% – Kasich
21% – Cruz
Presumed winner: Trump
It will be embarrassing to Gov. Kasich should he lose his home state of Ohio. Likewise for Sen. Rubio if Florida goes to Trump, which will likely happen. By losing their home states, they will have to seriously consider abandoning the race.
This can earn Trump another +200 delegates, bringing his total to +600, almost half of all of the delegates needed to secure the nomination (1,237). This tsunami of support will make it nearly impossible for any other candidate to catch up with Mr. Trump. By March 16th, he won’t have all of the delegates needed to win, but the GOP establishment should realize it’s all over but the shouting.
Keep the Faith!
