ROMNEY ROMPS TO 14-POINT LEAD IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 – 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s election
This compares to a 38 – 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In today’s survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 – 31 percent. He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich’s 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich’s 35 percent.
Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today.
Romney gets a 64 – 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 – 28 percent Friday. Gingrich has 51 – 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 – 28 percent Friday. Santorum is at 58 – 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 – 45 percent for Paul.
“Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich – self-described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it’s hard to see where Gingrich goes from here.”
From January 27 – 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 539 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS………………………
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Gingrich 29% 29% 28% 31% 24% 33% 26% 35% 24%
Romney 43 42 44 40 47 38 49 40 46
Santorum 11 10 12 12 9 13 9 10 11
Paul 11 12 9 9 14 11 10 10 11
SMONE ELSE(VOL) – 1 – – – – – – 1
DK/NA 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 6
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS….. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100
Gingrich 22% 33% 30% 26% 30% 32% 31% 26% 25%
Romney 51 38 37 43 48 39 39 50 45
Santorum 12 10 13 10 10 10 8 12 14
Paul 10 12 17 12 4 15 11 9 11
SMONE ELSE(VOL) – – – 1 – – – 1 –
DK/NA 6 7 3 8 7 5 12 2 5
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot NG MR
Mind made up 75% 72% 77%
Might change 24 28 21
DK/NA 1 – 3
2. Is your opinion of – Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS………………………
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 51% 54% 49% 55% 41% 54% 50% 62% 45%
Unfavorable 42 40 43 38 51 40 43 33 48
Hvn’t hrd enough 2 2 3 2 4 3 2 1 3
REFUSED 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 3 4
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS….. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100
Favorable 46% 55% 54% 49% 53% 52% 51% 54% 50%
Unfavorable 46 39 40 47 38 40 45 37 45
Hvn’t hrd enough 2 3 5 1 2 1 – 5 2
REFUSED 6 3 1 4 7 6 3 4 3
3. Is your opinion of – Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS………………………
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 64% 64% 65% 64% 68% 63% 68% 61% 67%
Unfavorable 25 27 23 28 18 31 22 29 24
Hvn’t hrd enough 6 5 7 4 10 4 6 5 5
REFUSED 4 4 5 4 4 2 4 5 4
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS….. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100
Favorable 71% 60% 61% 62% 70% 48% 65% 69% 69%
Unfavorable 21 28 29 28 19 33 25 23 25
Hvn’t hrd enough 3 7 9 4 6 13 3 6 2
REFUSED 4 4 1 6 6 6 7 3 3
4. Is your opinion of – Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard
enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS………………………
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 58% 60% 56% 69% 36% 62% 57% 69% 52%
Unfavorable 16 21 10 13 21 13 18 13 19
Hvn’t hrd enough 24 17 32 16 41 23 24 17 27
REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS….. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100
Favorable 60% 57% 53% 58% 60% 43% 54% 62% 66%
Unfavorable 21 13 14 17 17 13 24 13 15
Hvn’t hrd enough 16 29 33 22 20 43 22 22 18
REFUSED 3 2 – 2 2 1 – 4 1
5. Is your opinion of – Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS………………………
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 35% 35% 34% 35% 33% 32% 41% 34% 36%
Unfavorable 45 49 40 50 36 49 43 52 41
Hvn’t hrd enough 17 13 22 13 28 16 12 10 20
REFUSED 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 3
COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS….. ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100
Favorable 32% 37% 40% 32% 33% 37% 27% 39% 32%
Unfavorable 51 41 34 52 46 27 47 46 55
Hvn’t hrd enough 14 19 25 12 16 30 23 13 10
REFUSED 4 3 1 3 5 6 3 2 2
