From Hudson-Odoi to Wood: which Premier League transfers have been best value?

In the ever-evolving landscape of the Premier League, the 2023-24 season has witnessed a flurry of transfer activity, with clubs vying to secure the most promising talents to bolster their squads. As the season progresses, an intriguing narrative unfolds, showcasing the impact and effectiveness of these high-profile signings, ranging from the game-changing success stories to the unforeseen struggles of some key acquisitions.

A comprehensive study from OLBG scrutinizes the pivotal transfers made in the ongoing season, delving into the realm of football statistics, player performance, and market values to unveil the Premier League’s best and worst signings. From stellar debutants who have seamlessly integrated into their teams, making an immediate impact on the pitch, to the underwhelming transitions and unforeseen challenges faced by some marquee signings, this analysis sheds light on the success and failures observed across various clubs during the initial phase of the campaign.

Amidst the whirlwind of multimillion-pound deals and standout player performances, this study aims to provide a detailed evaluation of the season’s transfers, identifying the triumphs and tribulations, and offering insights into which clubs have made shrewd investments and which transfers have yet to live up to their expectations in the fast-paced world of English football.

Here is the study from OLBG:

With nearly a third of the Premier League season in the books, which players have been able to increase their value the most?

OLBG commissioned a study to show which players have outperformed their signing value, but also which ones have seen their value plummet early in the campaign.

As well as identifying which teams have made the best value signings this season, the study also analyzed TransferMarkt data to discover which new signing attacking players have increased most in worth, based on their Premier League first quarter performance. 

Callum Hudson-Odoi’s move from Chelsea to Nottingham Forest has seen his value increase by 243%. Since being signed for around £3m and reportedly being “beyond determined”, Hudson-Odoi’s value is now estimated to sit at about £12m

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Chris Wood’s move, having seen his value drop by 53%. Wood made the permanent move from Newcastle United to Nottingham Forest in June but has since seen his value fall from around £15m to just £8m

The ten players who have depreciated most in value 

  1. Chris Wood: -53% 
  2. Matheus Cunha: – 44% 
  3. Deivid Washington: -44% 
  4. Adrian Mazilu: -33% 
  5. Enso González: -33% 
  6. Cole Palmer: -32% 
  7. Chermiti: -28% 
  8. Alejo Véliz: -27% 
  9. Wilson Odobert: -25% 
  10. Matheus França: -25% 

Commenting on the findings, a spokesperson for OLBG said: “Premier League spending has increased by 43.9% over the past four years, seeing some record-breaking signings for players, such as Declan Rice’s move from West Ham to Arsenal for £116.6m. Because of these increasing fees, we wanted to look specifically at the transfers of attacking players to figure out which club was investing their money wisely into players who were providing value for money. There are still plenty of games to go this season, but the data paints a fascinating picture of which signings have hit the ground running, and which ones are still finding their feet”