New polls show race is getting closer
WASHINGTON – While Democrat Hillary Clinton remains the heavy favourite to win the presidential election, recent polls suggest her victory isn’t looking as assured as it once did. Meanwhile, Republican Donald Trump is doing all he can to reach out to a number of minority groups.
The latest batch of polls show that Clinton were considered “safe” for the Democratic nominee to secure victory even if she lost all of the remaining swing states to Donald Trump. If an election had been held last week, a Clinton win would have been projected with more than 95 per cent confidence.
That’s no longer the case because Clinton’s electoral college vote tally among safe Democratic states has dropped from 273 — just above the 270 needed to take the White House — to 253. Her lead over Trump in the national polls has slipped from a high of 6.4 points among decided voters in early August to 5.1 points today.
This movement in the electoral college has largely been driven by Clinton’s narrowing lead in the national polls, though some surveys at the state level also point to a few tightening races. Still, one poll shows that a linchpin state in Donald Trump’s electoral map may be moving out of his reach.
The three most recent U.S. polls in the Presidential Poll Tracker point to a trend line that is slowly moving against Hillary Clinton.
An Ipsos/Reuters poll put Clinton ahead by five points among decided voters. Her edge in the Ipsos poll done a week earlier was six points.
A poll from Morning Consult had Clinton ahead by four points among decided voters, compared to a lead of seven points earlier in the month.
And the daily tracking poll from UPI/CVOTER has gone from a Clinton lead that was as wide as seven points to a tie with Trump.
These polls moved Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes from “safe” to “likely” Democrat status, as the last survey conducted in Pennsylvania dates from Aug. 7. That coincided with Clinton’s widest lead in the national polls. The state-level data is now relatively older, so the negative trend line in the national numbers carries increased weight.
Nevertheless, Clinton is still projected to be ahead in Pennsylvania by about eight points.
Trust remains Clinton’s Achilles heel — recent news about more unreleased emails certainly won’t help. The poll found just 40 per cent of Ohioans felt Donald Trump “tells the truth,” but only 33 per cent said the same thing of the Democratic nominee.
This does limit Clinton’s ability to pull ahead more definitively.
It raises the question: just how badly would Donald Trump be losing if his opponent wasn’t Hillary Clinton?
Trump schedule for this week:
Donald Trump Rally LIVE in Austin, TX. (8-23-16) @ 7:30pm
Donald Trump Rally LIVE in Jackson, MS. (8-24-16) @ 7pm
Donald Trump Rally LIVE in Las Vegas, NV. (8-26-16) @ 2pm
Here is the Hillary Clinton schedule for this week:
Thu, Aug 25 Reno, Nevada
Sun, Aug 28 Charlotte, North Carolina
Mon, Aug 29 Pensacola Beach, Florida
Video from CNN and Fox News