CBS Will Lose $400K A Day From Time Warner Cable Black Out

We’ll probably see several reports over the next few days from analysts making financial estimates similar to the one out tonight from UBS Investment Research’s John Janedis. He says the $400,000 a day cost from lost ads and retransmission consent fees is “minimal” for CBS, leading him to reiterate his “buy” recommendation for the stock. (He doesn’t follow Time Warner Cable.)

It was “all but inevitable” that the company would fail to reach an agreement with TWC over programming fees: Since retransmission consent deals often last five years or more, CBS “can’t afford to take below market value given the inability to renegotiate terms.” He urges CBS investors not to worry. The likely cost will amount to a penny a share for every two weeks — and “if history is a guide, this should be resolved in less than two weeks.”

He notes that there was “little impact on the stock price” in recent cases where a programmer’s channels went dark on a pay TV system. “Our view continues to be that consumers have more loyalty to the content rather than the company which is responsible for distribution.”