Donald Trump the GOP front runner and Ted Cruz are all in as they battle for Tuesday’s Indiana GOP Primary. The Hoosier State is a winner-take-all contest, one that Trump wants to remain on path to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold and avoid a contested Republican National Convention later this summer.
The most recent poll Trump has 41 percent support among likely GOP primary voters, the American Research Group poll found, followed by Ted Cruz, at 32 percent, and John Kasich, at 21 percent.
Trump is the top choice among the solely self-reported Republicans surveyed, taking 42 percent compared to 34 percent for Cruz and 17 percent for Kasich.
The businessman is also the top choice among the self-reported independents and Democrats deemed likely to vote in the primary, leading Cruz by 10 points among that group.
While Trump holds a 13-point lead over Cruz among men, 45 to 32 percent, his lead among women is narrower — 36 to 32 percent.
Recent surveys have given Trump an advantage between 2 and 8 points over Cruz as the pair battle for support in the Hoosier State.
Popular Indiana Gov. Mike Pence supported Cruz on Friday but he praised Trump in the same endorsement speech for the Texas senator. Cruz tried to grab the headlines when he announced Carly Fiorina this week as his running mate.
Trump has been playing up the importance of the contest, saying on Thursday at a rally in Evansville that if he wins Indiana, “it’s over.”
Trump now has 994 delegates, 243 short of the 1,237 needed to capture the Republican presidential nomination. Cruz has 566; Kasich is at 153.
If Trump sweeps Indiana – and that’s a large if – his delegate count would go to 1,051. With that pace, Trump could secure the nomination by the May 17 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon.
The New York Times estimates that two more state wins could be enough to give the billionaire businessman the GOP 2016 presidential nomination.
After Indiana and the May 7 Democratic primary in Guam, the contest will go to Nebraska and west Virginia.
Here’s the rest of the primary season:
Nebraska Republican primary – 36 delegates
West Virginia – 37 Republican delegates, 34 Democratic
Tuesday, May 17
Kentucky Democratic primary – 61 delegates
Oregon primary – 28 Republican delegates, 72 Democratic, delegates awarded proportionally
Tuesday, May 24
Washington Republican primary – 44 delegates, delegates awarded proportionally
Saturday, June 4
Virgin Island Democratic caucus – 12 delegates
Sunday, June 5
Puerto Rico Democratic caucus – 67 delegates
Tuesday, June 7
California – 172 Republican delegates, 546 Democratic, delegates awarded proportionally
Montana – 27 Republican delegates, 27 Democratic, winner-take-all
New Jersey – 51 Republican delegates, 142 Democratic, winner-take-all
New Mexico – 24 Republican delegates, 43 Democratic delegates, delegates awarded proportionately
North Dakota Democratic caucus – 23 delegates
South Dakota – 29 Republican delegates, 25 Democratic, winner-take-all
Tuesday, June 14
District of Columbia Democratic caucus – 46 delegates