The kid gloves are off as we approach the end of the primary season.
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Shortly after the Wisconsin primary, I described Donald Trump’s political “Rope-A-Dope” whereby he knew he wouldn’t win the state due to the herculean effort of the media and Republican establishment to stop him. Following this, Trump has come out swinging and handed his opponents a crushing defeat in the New York primary. Although it was a proportional election, Trump easily won the lion’s share of the state’s 95 delegates.
After such a strong showing, Trump is about to pummel his opponents next week in five more Eastern primaries where he holds commanding leads in the polls:
Connecticut – 28 delegates (proportional distribution)
Delaware – 16 delegates (winner take all)
Maryland – 38 delegates (winner take all)
Pennsylvania – 71 delegates (winner take all)
Rhode Island – 19 delegates (proportional distribution)
172 delegates total
After this comes:
Indiana – 57 delegates (winner take all)
Nebraska – 36 delegates (winner take all)
West Virginia – 34 delegates
Oregon – 28 delegates (proportional)
Washington – 44 delegates (proportional)
199 delegates total
And we end the primary season on June 7th with:
South Dakota – 29 delegates (winner take all)
New Mexico – 24 delegates (proportional)
New Jersey – 51 delegates (winner take all)
Montana – 27 delegates (winner take all)
California – 172 delegates (winner take all)
303 delegates total
Grand Total – 769 delegates
It is important to note, in all of these remaining contests, Trump holds commanding leads. Prior to the New York primary, Mr. Trump held 755 delegates. In order to meet the 1,237 minimum, he needs only 482 delegates of the 769 remaining. In other words, it is very feasible Trump will win the GOP nomination on the first ballot at the convention in July.
His only concern at this point is a rigged political system where the GOP establishment can skew the rules against him. For example, the results of the Colorado and Wyoming primaries, where citizens were not allowed to participate in the voting, does not sit well with the American public.
What the GOP electoral process highlights is the incredible inconsistencies between the contests. For example, Primaries versus Caucuses, the counting of votes by State Board of Elections versus Party officials, the number of delegates to be selected varies between states, as does the number of ballots delegates must devote to a candidate (for example, Florida reserves three ballots for a candidate, other states reserve only one or two). This lack of standardization is simply bewildering to voters and demonstrates how easy it is to subvert the system.
Despite all these anomalies, it appears Donald Trump will still win the Republican nomination. The other GOP candidates can nip at his heels, but it will be Trump standing at the end of the contest.
Keep the Faith!