Jeb Loses Staff, Establishment Next?

Jeb Bush’s campaign lost three Florida-based fundraisers on Friday; Kris Money (appropriate name), Trey McCarley, and Debbie Alexander.

While the trio will continue to work for a Jeb Bush SuperPAC, conflicting stories emerged over how or why the fundraisers and the campaign split up. One story says the trio quit because of the “campaign personality differences” while another tale says they were “no longer needed”.

Bush, once considered GOP frontrunner in the 2016 presidential campaign, continues a massive slide down the polls. Bush averages around 7% in many polls, tied with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who is also having trouble gaining steam.

In the early goings of the campaign trail, disgruntled voters appear to favor non-traditional politicians. Real Estate mogul Donald Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlitt-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina are among the favorites. The only current politician joining this group is Texas Senator Ted Cruz. This group is soaking up more than 50% of polling attention in an over-sized field of 17 GOP candidates.

The GOP Establishment, the progressive, crony capitalist wing of the party, appeared to have a pecking order among its candidates with Bush being No. 1 and Rubio looking much like his protege. But Bush’s constant gaffes, inability to counter Trump’s aggressive stance on illegal immigration and generally reluctant demeanor, has not helped his cause.

Tim Miller, a Bush spokeman, told Politico.com: “Governor Bush has the widest and deepest fundraising operation of any candidate in the field. Ann Herberger — a longtime aide with more than two decades of experience in state and national politics — will continue to lead the operation in Florida with our team in Miami.”

And as the Democrats consider turning to vice president Joe Biden as an alternate solution to the growing toxicity of Hillary Clinton, will the GOP Establishment take a similar course and abandon Bush before Trump and the party irregulars get too big a grasp on voters?

Before we review potential replacement candidates here’s some criteria for the Establishment:

1. Ability to Beat Hillary or Biden: The Establishment seeks a candidate squishy enough on social issues to attract independents who consider themselves “socially liberal, fiscally conservative”.

2. Open Borders: Must be ready to rubber-stamp Amnesty on illegal immigration in order to provide the GOPE puppeteers — the Chamber of Commerce — cheap immigrant labor.

3. Speak About Fiscal Conservancy, But Spend Big: Like the Bush Congress and administration, wrap social programs and big spending under the cloak of Conservatism.

4. Attract Hispanic Voters: The GOP thinks it can win over Hispanic voters by being Amnesty-collaborators. No GOP presidential candidate has ever scored more than 40% of the Hispanic vote since 1980.

5. The Ability to Combat Trump: This person must be willing to echo Trump’s message, combat his brash style, bring some personal wealth to the occasion and excite at least a small portion of the GOP base or be attractive enough to Democrats to undermine the Conservative wing of the party.

These Candidates Are on Life Support:

Bobby Jindal
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Chris Christie
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Lindsey Graham

This Group Needs Immediate Polling Increases:

John Kasich
Scott Walker
Mike Huckabee
Bush
Rubio

To Whom Would the GOPE Turn?

1. Mitt Romney: He’s not officially jumped into the race, but as the most recent GOPE nominee, Romney brings personal wealth, campaign experience and perhaps some lessons learned from his 2012 loss to Barack Obama. The conservative base will not accept Romney 2.0 as they opted to stay away from the polls in 2012. Probably a big mistake in that Obama’s second term is far more damaging than a Romney administration.

2. John Kasich: The Ohio governor performed well in the Fox News debates. He’s a professional politician with a mixed record of economic and social success. On the downside, he shouldered Ohio with a massive Medicare burden and failed to stop Obamacare. He also doesn’t score well with social conservatives on gay marriage. But he seems savvy enough to go toe-to-toe with Trump.

3. Chris Christie: If the GOPE took all its Bush cash and applied it to Christie, could they take the controversial New Jersey Governor and re-shape him back into a contender? Many forget Christie was once considered an early frontrunner. He’s quick on his feet when debating, offers no-nonsense speech like Trump, will both counter-punch and attack in a fight. Trouble is his two-term record as a governor leaves him open for criticism on policy and effectiveness.

Prediction: Romney will pass on another potential run. Kasich and Christie will make more noise in the next month or so as more funds begin to flow their way. Scott Walker, a early favorite among the non-GOPE voting block, will make a massive effort to re-gain support from Tea Party/Conservatives. The field of 17 candidates will narrow down to nine: Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Kasich, Christie, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee and Walker. Everyone else will drop out by the end of New Hampshire or sooner.