Confusing Polling Numbers In Iowa

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I’m confused, when did Donald Trump lose Iowa in the polls? At least that is what the media keeps telling us. Wanting to verify this, I researched the major polls to see what they really said. Here are the most recent polls held in January:


Amer. Research Group – Jan 10th (Trump Up +4)
Trump over Cruz – 29% – 25%

Gravis – Jan 12th (Trump Up +6)
Trump over Cruz – 34% – 28%

Public Policy Polling – Jan 10th (Trump Up +3)
Trump over Cruz – 26% – 13%

Quinnipiac – Jan 12th (Trump Up +3)
Trump over Cruz – 31% – 28%


Bloomberg – Jan 10th (Trump Down -3)
Cruz over Trump – 25% – 22%

Fox News – Jan 7th (Trump Down -4)
Cruz over Trump – 27% – 23%

National polls show Mr. Trump way ahead, as well as the early primary states, but we’re only interested in the Iowa Caucuses here.

All of these polls are from credible organizations. The question thereby becomes which do we believe? The fact the media repetitively tells us, “Cruz is ahead in Iowa,” “Cruz is ahead in Iowa,” “Cruz is ahead in Iowa,” makes me highly suspicious particularly in lieu of the survey results. Admittedly, the polls show a close race, which is good for TV ratings, but I’m not sure it is valid.

B 4

We know the media despises Mr. Trump as he represents one of the non-establishment GOP candidates who finances his own campaign, thereby making him a maverick the press cannot control. It is very reminiscent of the relationship Richard Nixon had with the media, which was far from positive. To this end, I believe they will go to any lengths to defeat him, even to spread falsehoods. I am therefore very skeptical of the media’s insistence that “Cruz is ahead in Iowa.” In fact, I suspect it is just the opposite, that Donald Trump is way ahead in Iowa, not just a litte, but a lot. However, that wouldn’t make for good political theater, would it?

The only way we will know my theory is correct is obviously by the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses. If Mr. Trump does indeed carry the state by a substantial margin, we will know the media has been lying to us and obviously we should hold them in contempt. If I’m wrong, there are quite a few polls that will need recalibrating. We’ll find out February 1st.

Keep the Faith!