Silver Says Clinton Is Ahead Big At Halftime

Sliver Says Clinton Now Has An 80% Chance To Win

WASHINGTON – Today as a guest on the ABC program Good Morning America, famed stats man, Nate Silver, revealed his first general-election breakdown has presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at a near 80% favorite to win in the fall.

Silver, who has made a name for himself founding the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, handicapped Clinton’s current odds at 79% while giving presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump a 20% chance of winning the general election.

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“We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver said. “She’s taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime.”

“There’s a lot of football left to be played,” he said. “She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

Silver was quick to add that “both candidates have a lot of room to grow.”

Should Silver be right it is important to note the last candidate to blow a lead as large as the one Clinton currently holds was former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988. Dukakis, who left the Democratic convention that summer with a large lead over then Vice President George H.W. Bush, would later lose by a wide margin in the fall.

“Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general-election campaign,” Silver said. “He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”

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There is no doubt that Silver has a pretty good track record in using his system of picking candidates. In 2008 he called 49 out of 50 states correctly. Then in the 2008 election and got all 50 states correct in the 2012 election.

That said in this most un predictable of all presidential cycles perhaps in history Silver has been far from perfect. Earlier this election cycle, he handicapped Trump as having a 2% chance of winning the GOP presidential nomination.

 

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Jim Williams is the Washington Bureau Chief, Digital Director as well as the Director of Special Projects for Genesis Communications. He is starting his third year as part of the team. This is Williams 40th year in the media business, and in that time he has served in a number of capacities. He is a seven time Emmy Award winning television producer, director, writer and executive. He has developed four regional sports networks, directed over 2,000 live sporting events including basketball, football, baseball hockey, soccer and even polo to name a few sports. Major events include three Olympic Games, two World Cups, two World Series, six NBA Playoffs, four Stanley Cup Playoffs, four NCAA Men’s National Basketball Championship Tournaments (March Madness), two Super Bowl and over a dozen college bowl games. On the entertainment side Williams was involved s and directed over 500 concerts for Showtime, Pay Per View and MTV Networks.