Increasing wind fields ahead of a strong cold front will support increasing wind shear within the atmosphere today. This shared environment will be supportive of rotating storms with damaging winds and the potential for a few tornadoes.
At the present time, the best chances for severe storms will be from Hernando County north of Levy County during the afternoon and evening hours where the best shear profiles will exist and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this region under a Slight Risk for severe weather through tonight, with a marginal risk of other severe storms from the Tampa Bay area south to Sarasota.
In addition to the severe weather potential, some locally heavy rainfall amounts of one to on and a half inches in some locations will be possible. Occasional lightning strikes will also accompany the storms.
Source: National Weather Service