The Trump Campaign seems to be coming apart
By: Alan J. Steinberg – Columnist News Talk Florida
NEW YORK – On August 2 , I sent out an email stating that the likelihood of a Trump withdrawal was 50-50. I would say that the odds of that happening are increasing daily.
About 10 days ago, I posted on Facebook a four step scenario for a Trump withdrawal: 1) Media firestorm about Trump’s negatives; 2) GOP key figures call for Trump withdrawal; 3) Paul Manafort leaves the campaign; and 4) Donald Trump withdraws.
Step One has already happened. Donald Trump pours oil on the media firestorm every day, with such gems as his Second Amendment comment and his declaration that Obama and Hillary are founders of ISIS.
Step Two is ongoing. I am proud to have been one of the first on the NeverTrump list!
Step Three could happen before Labor Day. Manafort has both voluntary and involuntary reasons for leaving. Voluntary: He is associated with a candidate who appears to be a person of poor impulse control and severe anger management problems. Not good for Paul’s future business image. Involuntary: The New York Times has him under a microscope on his Ukraine dealings.
If Manafort leaves, the house of cards that is the Trump campaign will collapse. The RNC is reported to be considering defunding Trump at some point. With Hillary now having double digit leads in New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Virginia (13), and Pennsylvania (20), these states are no longer swing states, but Hillary base states. She now has a base state electoral vote total of 273 – three more electoral votes than she needs for election. Barring some super-blockbuster scandal story, Hillary’s election is virtually assured.
All this is severely damaging the Trump brand. More than anything else, Trump is a man with a brand, and if he perceives damage to his brand from his political failures and damaging media stories, he is likely to withdraw.
If Trump withdraws, he will blame 1) liberal media; 2) disloyal Republicans; and 3) a rigged election system.
The Republican National Committee would then pick a new presidential nominee. The problem is that in many states, it is too late for Trump to withdraw.
New Jersey law provides an answer. Memo to GOP superstar election lawyer Ben Ginsberg: Check the New Jersey Supreme Court case of Lautenberg v. Torricelli and how the Democrats were able to substitute Frank Lautenberg for Bob Torricelli as U.S. Senate candidate in 2002 after the deadline had passed.
Ben, maybe you can get former New Jersey Supreme Court Chief Justice Debbie Poritz, who wrote the opinion in the Lautenberg v. Torricelli case, to write an amicus curiae brief !!! Many Republicans feel that she owes them one !
More in my next missive as to whom the RNC might pick as the substitute presidential nominee.
Alan J. Steinberg, is a lifelong Republican who served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman.