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Mass., Kerry, And Christie Decide Obama’s Fate

With the current stalemate in the House of Representatives reminiscent of the standoff during the Cold-War, Barack Obama needs all the help he can get in Congress.

Currently Obama is favorable with the Senate because Democrats still hold majority.  A Democratic take over of the House is unlikely in 2014, so he might have to rely heavily on support from the Senate to carry him for the rest of his term.  This means keeping the Democratic majority is vital, but has the decision to elect John Kerry as Secretary of State doomed his Presidency.  The questions that should be ringing through the media world (instead of what has Amanda Bynes done this time?); how has he done so? who will do the dooming? and who is the deciding factor of all this?

By making John Kerry Secretary of State, a seat in the Senate has opened for Massachusetts.  At the time Deval Patrick appointed William Cowan on an interim basis to fill the vacancy until the Special Election, which takes place at the end of the month.  Everyone assumed that Cowan would run for the seat but he has since declined to do so.  This made the GOP ecstatic, now there’d be a good opportunity to steal a seat from their opposition.  Barack Obama’s appointment of Kerry has given the GOP a golden shot.

Republican, Gabriel Gomez won the primary and will face-off with Ed Markey this month.

Gomez is a fresh face and will surely be a staple in the GOP’s new generation of politicians.

Markey will enjoy Massachusetts Democratic majority voter base, but it is certain that the Republicans will fight nail and tooth and toss tremendous amounts of money into the effort.

Senator Scott Brown showed us in 2010  that anything can happen in a Special Election, so an underdog victory isn’t a so far-fetched possibility.

As it stands the Democrats hold 54 seats in Senate, including two Independents and Cowan, the GOP have 45 seats, and there is one vacant seat.

The open spot in Senate was left by Democratic New Jersey Senator, Frank Lautenberg whom passed away recently.  It will be up Republican Governor Chris Christie to decide who will fill the seat.

Christie appears to have to choose between his unlikely friendship with Obama and his standing with the GOP.  Since the Governor might wish to run for President, and since he might find a Republican Senator beneficiary for his Governing, it is likely he will choose the latter and elect a fellow GOP member.

If Christie appoints a Republican as Senator and Gomez wins Massachusetts, Republicans will gain two seats in senate, 47, and the Democrats will sit at 51 (excluding the independents that usually side with the left).  This narrows the margin slightly, but could still be a nightmare for Barack Obama.

The political landscape is a war-zone, relationships are fragile, and in coming years every member of congress will count.  Within the next month power lies with the people of Mass. and Chris Christie in deciding the tipping scale of the Senate.

The two Independent senators might also play a large role in Congress.  Could they be slightly swayed by the GOP?  Time will tell, I guess the point of Independents is that they can go either way.

 

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